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The 6th Short-term Prediction of Rock Failure Competition
August 7-10, 2026 | Hong Kong, China
Predicting major natural and engineering disasters in rock masses, including earthquakes, landslides, rockbursts, and gas outbursts, remains one of the most difficult challenges in modern science and engineering.
Drawing on long-term research into the mechanisms of rock mass disasters, Professor Zhao Yangsheng, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Professor at Taiyuan University of Technology, proposed the “Short-Term Prediction of Rock Failure Competition”. The purpose of the competition is to promote advances in theory, methodology, monitoring technology, and instrumentation for the short-term prediction of rock failure.
The competition focuses on three core prediction tasks:
1. Predicting the failure time of a rock specimen;
2. Predicting the elastic energy released at failure;
3. Predicting the location and mode of rock failure.
The competition is distinctive in several respects. First, the prediction results are objective and experimentally verifiable. Second, the competition links frontier scientific research with practical engineering applications. Third, it provides a common experimental platform on which different theories, methods, monitoring technologies, and instruments can be evaluated under the same testing conditions.
To date, there is no comparable international competition that provides a unified experimental platform for multiple teams to predict rock failure simultaneously, under identical loading conditions, while using different theoretical approaches, methods, monitoring technologies, and instruments. The first five competitions attracted leading research teams from around the world. These events enabled systematic comparison of different approaches to rock failure prediction, strengthened academic exchange and collaboration, and contributed to the development of disaster prediction theory and technology for rock mass systems.
Since its launch in October 2021, the competition has been held successfully five times. The first four editions were hosted by Taiyuan University of Technology, and the fifth was hosted by the Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. Because of limitations in venue capacity and experimental facilities, approximately 15 teams are selected from the applicant pool for each competition. Participants are primarily from universities and research institutes worldwide working in rock mechanics and related fields.
The competition is jointly organized by the ISRM Commission on Ultradeep Rock Mass Mechanics and Engineering and the International Consortium on Geo-Disaster Reduction. Research teams from around the world working in rock mechanics and related disciplines are warmly invited to participate. Through international collaboration and academic exchange, the competition aims to advance the theories, methods, and technologies used to predict disasters in rock masses.
The competition details are provided below.
1. Organizing Institutions
Organizers
ISRM Commission on Ultradeep Rock Mass Mechanics and Engineering
International Consortium on Geo-Disaster Reduction
Hosts
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Taiyuan University of Technology
Co-hosts
Key Laboratory of In-situ Property improving Mining of the Ministry of Education
Shanxi Society of Rock Mechanics and Engineering
2. Academic Committee
Chair: Zhao Yangsheng
Co-chairs: Li Shucai, Pan Yishan, Wang Fawu
Members: Feng Tao, Feng Zengchao, Huang Lixing, Huang Hongwei, Ji Hongguang, Ki-Bok Min, Li Ning, Li Xiao, Li Xibing, Liu Xinrong, Tan Yunliang, Tang Chun'an, Wang Jiachen, Wang Laigui, Wu Aiqing, Yang Qiang, Yang Gengshe, Zhu Wancheng, Zhang Guang
3. Organizing Committee
Chair: Pan Yishan
Co-chairs: Wang Fawu, Zhao Qi, Feng Zengchao
Members: Chen Guoxu, Shu Weiwei, Wang Guodong, Wu Siyuan, Lü Zhaoxing, Shen Yongxing, Song Yimin
4. Competition Schedule
4.1 Venue:
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
4.2 Competition Content:
Participating teams will conduct real time monitoring of rock specimens during uniaxial compression tests under constant displacement-rate loading. Using their own theoretical frameworks, analytical methods, monitoring techniques, and testing instruments, teams will be required to predict the following before specimen failure occurs:
1. The failure time of the rock specimen;
2. The location and geometry of the main fracture surface;
3. The elastic energy released at failure.
Teams must submit their prediction results and support documentation within the specified time limit. The supporting documentation should include, but is not limited to, the prediction principles, monitoring equipment, data processing methods, calculation basis, computational procedures, and final prediction results.
4.3 Test Conditions:
Loading conditions: Constant displacement-rate loading
Specimen dimensions: 150mm×150mm×300mm cuboid
Rock types: Granite and sandstone
4.4 Test and Competition Procedures:
1. The rock specimen will be placed in the testing machine, and a predetermined preload will be applied.
2. Each participating team will install its own sensors and testing instruments. The equipment installed must not interfere with the testing activities of other teams. (Important note: Sensors that emit electromagnetic or vibration signals are strictly prohibited.)
3. After all equipment has been installed, the testing machine will load the specimen continuously at a constant displacement rate. All participating teams will simultaneously monitor the physical and mechanical responses of the rock during deformation, damage evolution, and failure.
4. During loading, each team will use data obtained from its monitoring devices to predict the specimen failure time, the main fracture surface, and the elastic energy released at failure. Prediction results must be submitted within the required time limit.
5. Loading will continue until the specimen fails. Each participating team must record all relevant monitoring data throughout the test.
6. The judging panel will determine the reference results based on the actual failure time, the load–displacement curve, the displacement–time curve recorded by the testing machine, and the observed main fracture surface after failure.
7. Each participating team must independently complete predictions for one granite specimen and one sandstone specimen. Complete supporting documentation must be submitted within two hours after completion of the second specimen test.
8. The judging panel will evaluate each team based on its submitted prediction results and supporting documentation.
4.5 Team Composition:
Universities, research institutes, national key laboratories, and other relevant organizations may form teams independently or jointly. A joint team may include no more than three organizations.
Teams with members from different countries or regions are especially encouraged.
Each participating team shall consist of three members. At least one member must be non-student. There are no additional restrictions regarding degree status, academic rank, professional title, or institutional position.
During the competition, only registered team members may operate instruments, process data, and submit prediction results on site.
4.6 Competition Rules:
1. The organizers will be responsible for specimen preparation, operation of the testing machine, and provision of basic testing conditions. The organizers will carry out the entire uniaxial compression testing process. During the competition, the real time displacement-load and displacement-time curves recorded by the testing machine will not be disclosed to participating teams. These curves will be released uniformly after the competition.
2. Each participating team must prepare its own monitoring and prediction equipment, sensors, and computational software. The organizers will not provide such equipment.
3. During the competition, approximately six or seven teams will conduct rea time monitoring on the same specimen simultaneously. Considering the constraints of practical engineering monitoring conditions, each team may install a maximum of five sensors, such as strain gauges or acoustic emission probes, on the specimen surface. The maximum dimension of the senso specimen contact area of any single sensor shall not exceed 20 mm. Drilling holes in the specimen or injecting fluids into the specimen is strictly prohibited. There are no restrictions on the number or dimensions of externally mounted sensors or non contact testing devices.
4. All prediction results must be submitted before specimen failure occurs. Late submissions will be deemed invalid and will receive a score of zero.
4.7 Evaluation Criteria:
4.7.1 Determination of Standard Answers
The judging panel will determine the reference results based on the load–displacement curve, the displacement–time curve, and the spatial coordinates of the main fracture surface after specimen failure.
4.7.2 Failure Time Prediction (Full score: 50 points)
The failure time of the specimen is defined as the time at which the stress–strain curve decreases to one half of the peak strength. Scores will be assigned based on prediction accuracy and the weighting coefficient for advance prediction.
4.7.3 Main Fracture Plane Prediction (Full score: 20 points)
The main fracture plane is defined as the primary crack surface that penetrates the specimen and causes final failure. The judging panel will evaluate the similarity between the fracture plane diagrams submitted by the participating teams and the actual fracture plane. The final score for this item will be the average score assigned by all judges.
4.7.4 Energy Prediction (Full Score: 20 points)
Energy is defined as the elastic strain energy accumulated before peak strength. The score will be calculated as the ratio of the predicted value to the reference value, multiplied by the full score for this item.
4.7.5 Supporting Documents (Weighting coefficient: 0≤ξ≤1)
The supporting documentation must provide a scientific basis for the three prediction tasks described above. A score of 1 will be assigned for clear logic and appropriate methodology, whereas a score of 0 will be assigned if the supporting documentation is absent or does not substantiate the prediction results. The final weighting coefficient will be calculated as the average score assigned by all judges.
4.7.6 Feasibility for Engineering Application (Full score: 10 points)
The supporting documentation should demonstrate the potential applicability of the adopted methods to the prediction of engineering and geological disasters, such as earthquakes, landslides, and rockbursts. This item will be evaluated by the judges.
4.7.7 Awards
The top three teams will be determined according to their total scores.
In addition, a “Special Award for Failure Time Prediction” will be presented to the top three teams in the failure time prediction category.
5. Important Dates
● July 10, 2026: Registration form submission deadline
● July 20, 2026: Notification of eligibility
● August 7, 2026: Team registration and pre-competition preparation
● August 8-9, 2026: On-site competition
● August 10, 2026: Release of competition test curves and academic seminar on short-term prediction of rock failure
Please submit the registration form to the official competition email address: alv-1001@163.com
6. Additional Information
To protect the intellectual property of participating teams, individuals who are not registered competitors will not be permitted to enter the testing area.
All academic documents will be collected after the competition.
The organizers reserve the right of final interpretation for this event.
7. Contact Information
Lü Zhaoxing (Taiyuan University of Technology) Tel: +86 13834540915
Feng Zengchao (Taiyuan University of Technology) Tel: +86 13191077109
Download -Registration Form
ISRM Commission on Ultradeep Rock Mass Mechanics and Engineering
April 1, 2026