[Oral Presentation]Analysis of Senyar-Induced Flood-Landslide Compound Hazards in Aceh, Indonesia Using XGBoost - SHAP model

Analysis of Senyar-Induced Flood-Landslide Compound Hazards in Aceh, Indonesia Using XGBoost - SHAP model
ID:85 Submission ID:18 View Protection:ATTENDEE Updated Time:2026-07-31 15:36:27 Hits:5 Oral Presentation

Start Time:2026-08-11 18:25 (Asia/Hong_Kong)

Duration:15min

Session:[S8] Session 8 Mechanism, Risk, and Resilience for Disaster Chains » [S8] Session 8 Day 3

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Abstract
Floods and landslides frequently occur as compound hazards in tropical regions, causing severe socio-economic losses. In November 2025, Tropical Cyclone Senyar triggered widespread floods and landslides across Aceh Province, Indonesia. To identify hazard-prone areas and understand the underlying driving mechanisms, the interpretable susceptibility models using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) are developed based on this compound hazard event. The optimized XGBoost models achieve excellent performance, with AUC values of 0.9712 and 0.9501 and AP values of 0.9589 and 0.8654 for flood and landslide susceptibility, respectively. The susceptibility maps reveal distinct spatial patterns, with flood-prone areas concentrated in low-lying coastal plains and landslide-prone areas mainly distributed in inland mountainous regions. SHAP analysis reveals that elevation dominates flood susceptibility, whereas landslide susceptibility is jointly controlled by topographic and hydrological factors. These findings provide valuable insights for disaster risk reduction and land-use planning in tropical regions.
Keywords
Flood-landslide compound hazards,Susceptibility mapping,XGBoost-SHAP model
Speaker
Xin LI
Harbin Institute of Technology (shenzhen)

Submission Author
Xin Li Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen)
Jinhui Li Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen)
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